70% of people in the world’s richest countries want a wealth tax, and the G20 could be on the verge of taking action. We ponder what this means for the planet and its people.

How optimistic are you about your future? It turns out that if you live in a wealthy European or North American country, you are likely to feel less positive about the coming years than if you live in India, Indonesia, Mexico, Kenya or South Africa. But wherever you live, any optimism melts away when you think about your country or the world.

These are the findings of an Ipsos survey I commissioned of G20 countries – the world’s largest economies – minus Russia and with a limited number of questions asked in China. Globally, 62% of people are optimistic about their own future. But 80% of Indians are optimistic, rising to 85% of Mexicans; good news for the new president Claudia Steinbaum who is currently riding this Mexican wave.

Anyone who has ever been to a city in Mexico, India, Indonesia, or South Africa, cannot help but feel a sense of exuberant, youthful optimism amid the riotous chaos. This is true even in many of the most visibly deprived areas. Perhaps a decade or so of rapid economic growth gives people a sense of possibility.

Conversely, with a major conflict looming, the rise of the far right, and economic stagnation, these factors are likely to dampen optimism in Europe. With many pessimistic about their countries, we asked about political reforms in the survey.

It is striking that despite the strong democratic principles, transparency, extremely high living standards, and extensive public services that make Europe so famous, many people want major political and economic reforms.

We found that people are dissatisfied with levels of inequality everywhere. This can have a destabilising effect in Europe and elsewhere, and may help explain the shift to the far right and the simple message of ‘tear it all down’. But if people want political reform, it is important to know what types of governance arrangements are supported.

Democracy remains by far the most supported political system in the 17 G20 countries we were able to test. 81% of people agree that democracy is a very good or fairly good system of governance. Yet we also found that 40% of people consider a more authoritarian leadership style, where the leader is less dependent on parliament or elections, to be a good or fairly good system of governance. This is worrying. If we value democracy, we need to take it to the court of public opinion again and again.

A plutocracy, where the wealthy and corporate leaders are in charge, is the least supported system of government, under military and religious rule. Of course, some would argue that this is a fair description of the reality of democracy in the United States.

We also asked about trust. Despite the high level of support for democracy in the G20, there is a low level of trust in the government to act in the best interests of citizens. Only 39% of people in the G20 agree that their country’s government can be trusted to make decisions that benefit the majority of people, while 37% agree that their government can be trusted to make long-term decisions that benefit the majority of people 20 or 30 years from now.

Women have significantly less trust in government than men. In 17 G20 countries surveyed, only 34% of women trust governments to make long-term decisions for the benefit of all, compared to 41% of men. And emerging economies trust their governments more than rich countries.

G20 tax reform support bolsters climate reform

We asked what policies the public supports when it comes to protecting the climate. A massive 71% of people believe the world needs to take large-scale action across all sectors of the economy within the next decade. Very few people in the world believe a slow transition will work. Those who want the fastest transition tend to live in emerging economies or feel most exposed to climate risks.

Of course, this is at odds with political action. While many countries now have net zero climate targets for 2050 and medium-term targets in the 2030s, politicians everywhere are wavering. We see this most clearly in France, Germany, Sweden and the UK. Politicians are out of touch with the electorate, at least according to our data.

We tested people’s ideas about what they want from their country’s economy. In this year’s election, politicians of all stripes claim to have the best ideas for boosting economic growth. The economic growth narrative, centered around rising GDP, is rarely questioned as a policy goal in itself. But do people care?

Our data suggests that people would like to move away from such a singular focus. 68% of people in 17 G20 countries agree that the way the economy works should prioritize the health and well-being of people and nature, rather than focusing solely on profit and growing wealth. And 62% agree that a country’s economic success should be measured by its health and well-being, not the speed of growth.

But why did we ask such diverse questions about the economy and politics?

It is clear that simply implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will not be enough. We need economic and political reforms. We need to strengthen democracies to weaken the grip of the wealthy elite and restore trust in institutions. If people feel that the political economy of government is rigged in favor of the wealthy, they will rightly resist. Redistributing wealth would not only pay for the transformation needed, it would also signal fairness and solidarity.

This is where our survey got really interesting. We asked about progressive taxes, wealth taxes, higher corporate taxes and a polluter pays tax to cover the costs of the transformation people want. Support within the G20 is sky-high, with 68% backing a wealth tax.

If we can find the money to pay for the transformation, what should be the priorities? Beyond heat pumps and electric vehicles, we tested public support for a wide range of policies that amount to a new social contract between government, businesses and citizens.

Support is strongest for greening energy policies, strengthening workers’ rights and providing health care for all. Gender empowerment also scored well. Even where support was weaker, for example for universal basic income or citizens’ assemblies, more than 50% of people support these policies in the G20.

The scale of the support gives me a sense of optimism that politicians can create a new narrative, not one of scarcity and sacrifice, but of community, solidarity and opportunity.

Is it realistic to be optimistic about our future given the enormous challenges we face? I think it is right.

Fifty years ago, the world population exploded. Now it is under control and we will probably stabilize at maybe two or three billion more people than are alive today. That is a success.

Fifty years ago, we didn’t know how to feed a growing population and there was famine. Today, famine is largely confined to politically unstable countries. And we know we have enough resources to feed 10 billion people a healthy diet without costing the planet.

Fifty years ago we didn’t know how to end poverty. Today, poverty levels are the lowest in human history.

And fifty years ago we didn’t know how to run an economy on clean energy. Now we have the knowledge and it is economically affordable. All countries can become energy independent within a generation.

Of course, optimism must be tempered with realism. We are really heading towards climate chaos. We will most likely pass tipping points, but if we curb emissions now, we will probably avert scenarios of civilization collapse.

And of course the gap between rich and poor is widening, which will ruin social cohesion and undermine solidarity. But if we address this as well, then I argue that the basis of a new social contract to build the solidarity to act on a large scale and make a big leap is there – as we advocate at Earth4All.

Whichever path we choose, we face deep turbulence and uncertainty. Even with rapid emissions reductions, we will face chaos. A more equal society is also a more resilient society. As the G20 is about to take a historic decision on wealth taxation, I am optimistic about our future.